Who might set new franchise HR records in 2026?

Issue #560

Cal Raleigh had an amazing season last year, with his 60 HR not only setting a record for HR in a season by a primary catcher, but also setting a Mariners’ team HR record.

Shohei Ohtani set a new Dodgers’ franchise record for HR last year with 55, and that came after doing the same with 54 HR the year before. So clearly he could do it again in 2026 by hitting 56.

In 2023 Matt Olson set a new Braves HR standard with 54, and of course Aaron Judge did the same with his 62 HR for the Yankees in 2022.

So what about this upcoming 2026 season? Who has the best chances to set a new HR record for their respective franchises? In looking over all 30 clubs, I’ve grouped them into three categories:

Here is the analysis for all 30, with the order in each category being from largest HR record to smallest. I’ll conclude with my final top-8 ranking of who is most likely to set a new franchise HR record this year.

Giants: Barry Bonds, 73 (2001)
Willy Adames hit 30 for the Giants last year, the first to do so in over 20 years. Clearly neither he, nor Rafael Devers, nor anyone else on the Giants will hit 74 HR in 2026.

Cardinals: Mark McGwire, 70 (1998)
I'm not even sure anyone will hit 20 HR for the Cardinals in 2026. Someone probably will... Nolan Gorman? Iván Herrera? Alec Burleson? Perhaps rookie JJ Wetherholt?

Cubs: Sammy Sosa, 66 (1998)
The Cubs are returning three guys who had 30+ HR last year in Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Seiya Suzuki. Ian Happ and newcomer Alex Bregman can hit 30 also. But I don’t think any of these guys are the type to suddenly hit 67 HR.

Marlins: Giancarlo Stanton, 59 (2017)
Kyle Stowers hit 25 HR in 117 games in 2025, so he clearly could hit 30+ in 2026. A few others are capable of 20+ HR, including rookie Owen Cassie... but no one here is hitting 60 HR.

Diamondbacks: Luis Gonzalez, 57 (2001)
Corbin Carroll had 31 HR last year, and Ketel Marte had 28 in only 126 games. They could easily hit 30+ in 2026, as could Nolan Arenado or perhaps Geraldo Perdomo. But not 58.

Rangers: Alex Rodriguez, 57 (2002)
The Rangers have several guys who could hit 30+ HR in 2026, including Wyatt Langford, Corey Seager, or even Brandon Nimmo, Jake Burger, or Josh Jung. But 58? Nope.

Red Sox: David Ortiz, 54 (2006)
The Red Sox have plenty of guys who can hit, but I don't see many who will put up huge HR numbers. Trevor Story had a great rebound season in 2025 including 25 HR, but I think his days of hitting 37 HR (2018) or 35 HR (2019) are likely not returning. This team might just have a bunch of guys who hit 20-30 HR and that is it.

Brewers: Prince Fielder, 50 (2007)
Christian Yelich had 29 HR in 2025, and hit 44 once... back in 2019. He is 34 years old now, so I don't think he, or anyone else on the Brewers, will hit 51 HR in 2026.

Mariners: Cal Raleigh, 60 (2025)
Well, Cal Raleigh just had 60 HR last year, so perhaps he could hit 61 as an encore in 2026. I don't think he will, and he might not even hit the most HR on the team as Julio Rodríguez had 32 HR last year, Randy Arozarena had 27, and Josh Naylor had 20 (but had 31 in 2024).

Tigers: Hank Greenberg, 58 (1938)
Riley Greene hit 36 HR last year, and Spencer Torkelson had 31. I could see either of them getting 40+ in 2026, but likely not 59 HR.

Athletics: Jimmie Foxx, 58 (1932)
The Athletics have lots of guys who can slug, but 59 is a lot of HR to target. I think Nick Kurtz could reach 45+ HR, since he hit 36 HR in only 117 games as a rookie last year. And Shea Langeliers had 31 HR in 123 games, Brent Rooker had 30 HR, and Tyler Soderstrom had 25. It would just take a lot for any of them to get to 50+, let alone 59.

Blue Jays: José Bautista, 54 (2010)
George Springer hit 32 HR in 2025, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit 23 (and had 30 in 2024, and 48 back in 2021). Either of them could hit 35+ in 2026, and so might Japanese import Kazuma Okamoto, who hit 30+ HR every year from 2018-2023, with a high of 41 in 2023.

Braves: Matt Olson, 54 (2023)
Matt Olson had those franchise-record 54 homers just three years ago in 2023. He's had 29+ HR seven times in his career, and he famously plays every day (he has the longest active streak going at 782). But in each of the past two years he's had exactly 29 HR in 162 games, so I don't expect him to suddenly hit 55 HR in 2026. Other solid career-high HR tallies on this club include Ozzie Albies with 33 HR in 2023, Austin Riley had 38 HR in 2022, and Ronald Acuña Jr. hit 41 HR in both 2019 and 2023. But again, 55 HR is a lot to ask from any of these guys.

Pirates: Ralph Kiner, 54 (1949)
Oneil Cruz hits rockets. But he also strikeouts a ton and batted only .200 last year. I hope he rebounds, and ditto for Bryan Reynolds too. Marcell Ozuna had 40 HR in 2023, but he is 35 years old now. And Brandon Lowe, while only 31 years old, had his high of 39 HR in 2021. So I just don't see anyone here belting 55 dingers in 2026.

Mets: Pete Alonso, 53 (2019)
Soto had 35, 41, and 43 HR in the past three seasons. His patient approach at the plate (drawing so many walks) makes it unlike he'd suddenly hit 54 HR in 2026. And Jorge Polanco, Marcus Semien, Francisco Lindor, Bo Bichette, Francisco Alvarez... all are capable of hitting 20-30+ HR, but not much more I wouldn't think.

Guardians: Jim Thome, 52 (2002)
José Ramírez had 30 HR last year, and a career-high 39 in 2024. So he could crack 40 HR in 2026, his age-33 season, but I would not think much beyond that. And Kyle Manzardo (who had 27 HR last year) and Rhys Hoskins (if he makes the team), could hit 30+ HR... but again, 53 seems very unlikely.

Padres: Greg Vaughn, 50 (1998)
Manny Machado is still a good player, but at 33 he isn't going to blow past his career high of 37 HR (2016, 2018) and suddenly blast 51. Fernando Tatis Jr., on the other hand, is 27 and in his prime. He led the NL with 42 HR in 2021, then didn't play in 2022 and since then has had totals of only 25, 21, and 25 HR the past three years. But could he suddenly explode for 40+ HR again? Sure... but 51 would clearly be a stretch.

Twins: Harmon Killebrew, 49 (1964 and 1969)
Byron Buxton had a great year last year with a career-high 35 HR (and 24 SB too!). He was healthier than most seasons, but still only played 126 games. At that rate, if he played 162 games he would have had 45 HR... which is getting close to the 50 needed to surpass Killebrew. But lets not lose our heads here, as no one can expect Buxton to suddenly become Matt Olson or Cal Ripken and play every day.

Rockies: Larry Walker, 49 (1997) and Todd Helton, 49 (2001)
The Rockies HR leader last year was their primary catcher, Hunter Goodman, with 31. He could do that again, and some others on the team, like Ezequiel Tovar or others, could also top 30 dingers in 2026. But the environment isn't as HR-happy as it was 20-25 years ago, and the roster isn't as flush with talent as it was back then either.

Royals: Jorge Soler, 48 (2019) and Salvador Perez, 48 (2021)
They have brought in the fences… so maybe? Salvador Perez had 30 HR in his age-35 season, so at this point I don't see him surpassing his 48 from 2021. Vinnie Pasquantino led the team last year with 32 HR, and is in his prime, but 49 even with the shorter distance would seem a challenge. Ditto for Bobby Witt Jr. whose career-high so far has been 32 HR in 2024. Jac Caglianone had a combined 27 HR last year between AA, AAA, and the Royals... so maybe someday?

Angels: Troy Glaus, 47 (2000)
Former (2017) first-round pick Jo Adell finally came through on his power potential with a team-leading 37 HR last year, and 2026 will be his age-27 season... so perhaps he finds another gear? Jorge Soler as noted above actually hit 48 HR back in 2019 with the Royals, but his high since then was 36 in 2023 and this will be his age-34 season. Trout is also 34 now, and with his career-high 45 HR coming back in 2019, even if he's healthy I think 30-35 HR is more reasonable to expect.

Nationals: Alfonso Soriano, 46 (2006)
James Wood led the team last year with 31 HR... and also with 221 strikeouts. If he could cut down on the latter... then 35-40 HR seems likely, but reaching 47 might be a stretch. He is only 23 years old, so if not in 2026, maybe someday.

Yankees: Aaron Judge, 62 (2022)
Several guys on the Yankees could hit 30+ HR in 2026, including Austin Wells, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ben Rice, Trent Grisham, Cody Bellinger, Giancarlo Stanton, or even others. But 63 HR is only an Aaron Judge question really. He had 53 last year, and will turn 34 in late April... so sure, 50+ seems doable again, and while 63 is unlikely, anything seems possible with Judge.

Phillies: Ryan Howard, 58 (2006)
Kyle Schwarber had a career-high 56 HR in his age-32 season in 2025. He had "only" 46, 47, and 38 HR the three years prior, so it is unlikely he'll get to 59 this year... but it is at least possible. Bryce Harper had 27 HR last year, and once hit 42 HR -- but that was in 2015 in his age-22 season, and now he is 33.

Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani, 55 (2025) - 54 in 2024
Shohei Ohtani has hit 54 HR and 55 HR in his first two years with the Dodgers. So naturally he could certainly hit 56 HR in 2026. He is the obvious candidate here, though the Dodgers have plenty of others who could hit 25-30+ HR including Will Smith, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Andy Pages, Teoscar Hernández, and Kyle Tucker.

Orioles: Chris Davis, 53 (2013)
Pete Alonso has the Mets HR record with 53, which he hit back in his rookie season in 2019. And he's had between 34-46 HR in each of the past five seasons -- so I fully expect 35-40+ HR from him in 2026. Gunnar Henderson only managed 17 HR in 2025, but he had 37 the year before, so 30+ in 2026 seems possible. Tyler O'Neil has hit 30+ HR twice, including 31 HR in only 113 games in 2024. And Taylor Ward had a career-high 36 HR last year for the Angels. Not likely any of these guys will get 54 HR in 2026, but there are at least several candidates.

Reds: George Foster, 52 (1977)
The obvious candidate here is Eugenio Suárez, who hit 49 HR last year for the Diamondbacks and Mariners, and also hit 49 HR back in 2019 for these very Reds. So could he hit 53 in his age-34? Not likely, but possible. A few others could reach 30+ HR, including superstar Elly De La Cruz, but going for the franchise record would seem to be a Suárez question only.

White Sox: Albert Belle, 49 (1998)
Hitting 50 HR is no easy thing, but it could be do-able I suppose for two guys on the White Sox roster. It remains to be seen how well Munetaka Murakami will adjust to MLB pitching, but he had 24 HR in just 69 games in Japan last year, and in 2022 hit 56 HR. And Colson Montgomery had 21 HR in only 71 games as a rookie. At that rate over 150 games he'd have 44 HR. More realistic though might be 30-35 HR, as he had 32 HR over 131 games combined in the majors and minors last year. And in 2024 he only had 18 HR in 130 games at AAA -- so yeah, 50 seems a stretch.

Astros: Jeff Bagwell, 47 (2000)
The Astros have a few guys who could hit 25-35 HR, such as Jose Altuve and Christian Walker. But the big threat to possibly hit 48 HR is clearly Yordan Alvarez. He only played 48 games last year, but he had between 31-37 HR in each of the four seasons before that. At only 28 years old he is still in his prime, and if he can stay healthy and mostly play DH, I see no reason he couldn't set a new career-high for himself at least, with 48 HR at least a possibility.

Rays: Carlos Peña, 46 (2007)
This is all about Junior Caminero, who came within one HR of tying Carlos Peña's record 46 last year. At still only 22 years old, I figure he'll hit 40+ HR many more times, and so hitting 47 is a real possibility.

If I had to rank these eight most likely possibilities for new franchise HR records being set in 2026, I'd go with the following order, starting with the most likely:

Did you know? I wrote a 600+ page book with the same title as this newsletter/blog? Now Taking the Field: Baseball’s All-Time Dream Teams for All 30 Franchises was published in early 2019, by ACTA Sports. It is available at Amazon and most other major booksellers.

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