Who might set new franchise HR records in 2026?

Issue #560

Cal Raleigh had an amazing season last year, with his 60 HR not only setting a record for HR in a season by a primary catcher, but also setting a Mariners’ team HR record.

Shohei Ohtani set a new Dodgers’ franchise record for HR last year with 55, and that came after doing the same with 54 HR the year before. So clearly he could do it again in 2026 by hitting 56.

In 2023 Matt Olson set a new Braves HR standard with 54, and of course Aaron Judge did the same with his 62 HR for the Yankees in 2022.

So what about this upcoming 2026 season? Who has the best chances to set a new HR record for their respective franchises? In looking over all 30 clubs, I’ve grouped them into three categories:

Here is the analysis for all 30, with the order in each category being from largest HR record to smallest. I’ll conclude with my final top-8 ranking of who is most likely to set a new franchise HR record this year.

Giants: Barry Bonds, 73 (2001)
Willy Adames hit 30 for the Giants last year, the first to do so in over 20 years. Clearly neither he, nor Rafael Devers, nor anyone else on the Giants will hit 74 HR in 2026.

Cardinals: Mark McGwire, 70 (1998)
I'm not even sure anyone will hit 20 HR for the Cardinals in 2026. Someone probably will... Nolan Gorman? Iván Herrera? Alec Burleson? Perhaps rookie JJ Wetherholt?

Cubs: Sammy Sosa, 66 (1998)
The Cubs are returning three guys who had 30+ HR last year in Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Seiya Suzuki. Ian Happ and newcomer Alex Bregman can hit 30 also. But I don’t think any of these guys are the type to suddenly hit 67 HR.

Marlins: Giancarlo Stanton, 59 (2017)
Kyle Stowers hit 25 HR in 117 games in 2025, so he clearly could hit 30+ in 2026. A few others are capable of 20+ HR, including rookie Owen Cassie... but no one here is hitting 60 HR.

Diamondbacks: Luis Gonzalez, 57 (2001)
Corbin Carroll had 31 HR last year, and Ketel Marte had 28 in only 126 games. They could easily hit 30+ in 2026, as could Nolan Arenado or perhaps Geraldo Perdomo. But not 58.

Rangers: Alex Rodriguez, 57 (2002)
The Rangers have several guys who could hit 30+ HR in 2026, including Wyatt Langford, Corey Seager, or even Brandon Nimmo, Jake Burger, or Josh Jung. But 58? Nope.

Red Sox: David Ortiz, 54 (2006)
The Red Sox have plenty of guys who can hit, but I don't see many who will put up huge HR numbers. Trevor Story had a great rebound season in 2025 including 25 HR, but I think his days of hitting 37 HR (2018) or 35 HR (2019) are likely not returning. This team might just have a bunch of guys who hit 20-30 HR and that is it.

Brewers: Prince Fielder, 50 (2007)
Christian Yelich had 29 HR in 2025, and hit 44 once... back in 2019. He is 34 years old now, so I don't think he, or anyone else on the Brewers, will hit 51 HR in 2026.