When Will the Pirates' Next Playoff Run Begin?

Issue #181

I live in Rochester, New York. While many here in Western NY are Yankees or Mets fans, NYC is actually about 6 hours away. So nobody considers it a requirement that you be a fan of those teams just because they are in the same state. The Blue Jays are actually my closest MLB team, but at 3.5 hours and with an international border between Rochester and Toronto, there aren't too many Blue Jays fans here either.

Rochester is a AAA city, and people here generally love our Red Wings team. But their major league affiliation has changed over the years: Cardinals, Orioles (my childhood in the 1970s and 1980s), Twins, and now the Nationals. So again, only some folks around here have gone with any of those clubs as their favorites.

Few readers would know this from my broad baseball writing, but my favorite team is the Pittsburgh Pirates. I turned 50 last fall, and in 1979 I was six years old. By that age I needed to pick a favorite team, and the 1979 "We Are Family" Pirates were a fun bunch—1B Willie "Pops" Stargell, OF Dave Parker, 3B Bill Madlock, OF Omar Moreno, SP Bert Blylven, SP John Candelaria, RP Kent Tekulve, and others.

The 1979 Pirates went 98-64 and won the NL East division by two games over the Montreal Expos, and then went on to win the World Series in seven games over the Baltimore Orioles. And they of course had those fun hats—the black with gold lines and stars. That style of Pirates hat became what I'd wear a lot as a kid in the 1980s.

In terms of success on the field, being a fan of the Pirates since 1979 hasn't been easy. They made the playoffs each year from 1990-1992, backed by guys like Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonilla, Andy Van Slyke, Doug Drabek, and others, but lost in the NLCS each year.

They then had a rather pathetic 20-year losing streak until their next brief flirtation with success from 2013-2015 when again they made the playoffs three years in a row, but lost in the NLDS once and Wild Card twice. That era featured a young Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Gerrit Cole, Mark Melancon, and others.

Since then the Pirates have been a losing team each year except posting an 82-79 record in 2018. This included two 100-game losing seasons as recently as 2021 and 2022.

In 2024, exactly one-third the way through the season, their record is 25-29, which is a .463 winning percentage. They are in fourth place in the NL East, six games behind the Brewers who are 30-22. As in 2023, they started the season very well, but then returned to earth due to particularly weak offense for several consecutive weeks.

It is still early in the season, but realistically it seems unlikely the Pirates will make the playoffs this year. The Phillies, Dodgers, and even Brewers seem most likely to win their respective divisions—especially now that the Braves have lost 2023 MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. to injury. The fight for wild card spots will be interesting to watch, but I'd say there are eight teams in the hunt—ATL, CHC, STL, PIT, CIN, SDP, SFG, and ARI. I include the Pirates as one of them, but the odds aren’t in their favor.

What the Pirates do have, however, is the most brewing excitement for their future that they’ve had in a long time. This article could have been titled "The Beginning of the Paul Skenes Era"—but that would be unfair to the many other exciting young players that will form the core of the next Pirates playoff run. Here is hoping that it can be better than the 1990-92 and 2013-15 versions, either in duration and/or postseason success!

Pirates Pitching for 2025 and Beyond

I'm going to focus here on starting pitching, for two reasons:

• That is where the exciting young talent is mostly centered.

• Although the Pirates bullpen was supposed to be a strength this season, most of their key relievers have been plagued by painful inconsistency—closer David Bednar, imported setup man Aroldis Chapman, Hunter Stratton, Josh Fleming, and others. (There have been two exceptions in 25-year old Luis Ortiz, who after starting 15 games last year has posted a 3.54 ERA in 16 relief appearances, and 28-year old Colin Holderman, who has been outstanding with a 0.55 ERA and 22 K in 16.1 IP.)

Bullpens are vitally important to success in the major leagues these days, but they are also the most variable part of most rosters. They can fluctuate a lot from year to year, and given the age of many of the Pirates relievers and the issues some of them have had so far this year, my crystal ball for their bullpen in 2025 is very cloudy.

What is more clear is the outstanding starting rotation the Pirates will have for I hope the next 3-5 years or more. The ace of the staff coming into the season was 28-year old Mitch Keller, a long-time prospect who was the team's All-Star representative in 2023. He has been inconsistent over the years, but has worked hard on his pitch mix. Perhaps only a league-average "ace," he no longer needs to stress about being a #1—in fact, it seems likely he can now settle in as an above-average #3 in the Pirates rotation.

Here are highlights of how I think the Pirates starting pitching will project out for 2025 and beyond:

1. Paul Skenes (R)

• Age: 21. Overall #1 pick in 2023 draft out of LSU.

• 2024 AAA: 0.99 ERA over 7 starts, with 45 K in 27.1 IP. Only 17 hits allowed, and only 1 HR.

• 2024 MLB: 2.25 ERA in first 3 starts, with 21 K in 16 IP. Has several quality pitches, including a fastball that regularly reaches 100-102 mph.

2. Jared Jones (R)

• Age: 22. Was PIT second round pick in 2020 draft.

• Minors: Progressed nicely from 2021-2023, with his WHIP and ERA dropping each year. K-rate of 10.4 K/9 in both 2022 at A+ and 2023 at AA-AAA.

• 2024 MLB: Off to a great start, and is an NL ROY candidate assuming Skenes doesn’t dominate so much that he wins it). Jones has posted a 3.05 ERA over 10 starts, with 68 K in 59 IP. He has surrendered 10 HR (1.5 HR/9 IP), but his control has been the biggest improvement with a 0.966 WHIP and 1.5 BB/9 IP ratio, compared with 1.235 WHIP and 3.6 BB/9 last year in the minors.

3. Mitch Keller* (R)

• Age: 28. Was PIT second round pick in 2014 draft.

• Status: Signed through 2028.

• Career: His short 2020 pandemic season was solid with a 2.91 ERA in 5 starts, but that was sandwiched between horrible seasons in 2019 (7.13 ERA in 11 starts) and 2021 (6.17 ERA in 23 starts). But he has worked hard, and in 2022 posted a 3.91 ERA across 159 IP, then last year was an All-Star before ending the season with a 4.21 ERA and 210 K in 194.1 IP. Importantly, his WHIP also dropped significantly from 1.396 to 1.245, as his walk rate dropped from 3.4 BB/9 to 2.5 BB/9.

• 2024 MLB: So far this year Keller has posted a 3.59 ERA in 11 starts. His K rate is a bit down (7.7 K/9 vs. 9.7 last year) with 58 K in 67.2 IP, but his walk rate has held at 2.5 BB/9. As noted, it seems he can settle in now as the Pirates #3, which might take some ace-level stress of his shoulders.

(* Personal note: On a recent return business trip, my wife and I, completely randomly, happen to sit next to Mitch Keller’s mother-in-law at a restaurant in an airport. Very nice lady!)

Beyond those three, the 2025+ rotation for the Pirates is less clear. But interesting options abound with at least the following:

Quinn Priester (R)

• Age: 23. First-round draft pick (18th overall) by the Pirates in 2019.

• Status: Earliest Free Agent year is 2030

• Career: Priester has generally pitched well in the minors as he moved up the ranks from 2019-2023. His debut with the Pirates last year was rough, as he posted a 7.74 ERA in 50 IP over 8 starts and two relief appearances. His K-ratio of only 6.5 K/9 was far lower than the 8.9-10.1 K-ratios he had posted in the minors.

• 2024 MLB: He has started 5 games each in the major and minors this year. For PIT, he has a 4.33 ERA but with only 5.7 K/9. For AAA Indianapolis, he has been stronger, with a 3.28 ERA and impressive 10.6 K/9 ratio.

Bailey Falter (L)

• Age: 27. Drafted by Phillies in 5th round in 2015. PIT acquired Falter in a trade in August, 2023.

• Status: Earliest Free Agent year is 2029

• Career: Was generally good in the minor leagues as he climbed up the ranks from 2015-2021. Debuted as a reliever for the Phillies with mixed results in 2021, then started 16 games with a 3.86 ERA across 84 IP in 2022. Struggled in 2023 posting a 5.36 ERA across 14 starts and 80.2 IP for the Phillies and Pirates, with his K/9 ratio dropping from 7.9 to 6.7.

• 2024 MLB: Has been a pleasant surprise for the Pirates this year, with a 3.55 ERA in 10 starts. His WHIP has dropped dramatically to 0.977 so far this year (only 43 hits in 58.1 IP), compared with 1.413 last year, but his K-rate has also dropped again to a mere 5.1 K/9. A few months ago Falter wasn’t someone I was seeing as part of the Pirates long-term plans, but given how he has performed so far this year—and as a lefty—could he might be in the S4/S5 mix longer term?

Johan Oviedo (R)

• Age: 26. Acquired by PIT from STL in August, 2022.

• Status: Out for the year recovering from Tommy John surgery in December. Earliest Free Agent year is 2028

• Career: After progressing well enough up through the minors from 2016-2019, Oviedo had only mixed success as a starter for the Cardinals in 5 games in 2020 and 13 games in 2021. In the 2022 they were using him as a reliever when he was traded to the Pirates. After several good starts at AAA Indianapolis, he came up and had a 3.23 ERA in seven starts for Pittsburgh.

• 2023 MLB: Oviedo posted a 4.21 ERA with 158 K in 177.2 IP over 32 starts. Low HR/9 rate of 1.0, but high walk rate of 4.2 BB/9.

Beyond those three, there are a number of prospects in the minors that could figure into the Pirates rotation—if not this year, then potentially in 2025 and beyond. These include RHP Bubba Chandler (age 21, AA), LHP Anthony Solometo (21, AA), RHP Thomas Harrington (22, AA), RHP Braxton Ashcraft (24, AA), RHP Mike Burrows (24, AAA), and others.

And then there is the free agent market. The Pirates brought in two veterans this year who will be free agents after the season: LHP Martín Pérez (33 years old) and Marco Gonzales (32 years old). And there are many others who either will or could be free agents after this season ends—see this list.

Given all of the above options, I think the Pirates are unlikely to spend big on free agent SP after this season. But they have a history of bringing in pitchers for 1-2 years, often change-of-scenery guys who turn their careers around in Pittsburgh or at least have some good starts during their time there.

Pirates Hitting for 2025 and Beyond

The Pirates lineup started out the year alright, but then plummeted down the rankings such that they are now 23rd in the league in runs per game, 24th in batting average, 22nd in OBP, and 26th in SLG. They also are fourth in total strikeouts with 514 in 54 games.

But as with the starting rotation, I think their future is bright with some current and future stars likely to be on their roster for years to come.

SS Oneil Cruz

• Age: 25.

• Status: Earliest Free Agent year is 2029

• Career: Clearly a great talent, Cruz puts up highlight reel moments with lasers off his bat and rocket throws across the diamond. After a solid 2022, where his combined AAA/MLB totals included 26 HR and 21 SB, he lost most of 2023 to injury. So far in 2024 he has 7 HR and 4 SB, so is on pace for 21 HR and 12 SB. He needs to cut down on his strikeout rate (72 K in 51 games so far), and hopefully his slash line of .247/.302/.421 will improve to close to his minor-league levels as he matures in the bigs.

3B Ke'Bryan Hayes

• Age: 27. Drafted in first round (32nd) in 2015 draft.

• Status: Signed through 2029 with a team option for 2030.

• Career: Hayes finally won his first Gold Glove Award last year for his defensive prowess at the hot corner. After putting up below-league average offensive numbers in 2021 and 2022, he improved in 2023 to post 15 HR and 10 SB with a .271/.309/.453 slash line in 124 games. He has had a slow start in 2024, including time injured, but hopefully he'll get back on track and finish the year strong.

OF Bryan Reynolds

• Age: 29. Drafted by the Giants in second round of 2016 draft.

• Status: Signed through 2030 with a team option for 2031.

• Career: An All-Star in 2021, his percentages have dipped a bit the past two years. But he has posted 24-27 HR each season and has 7 HR and 4 SB so far in 2024. Improving even slightly to be a 30-HR, 10-SB, .280/.350/.475 guy would help the Pirates reach the playoffs sooner rather than later.

After those three, lets consider the guys who are potential future stars.

C/OF Henry Davis

• Age: 24. First overall pick by PIT in 2021 draft.

• Status: Earliest Free Agent year is 2030

• Career: Davis has struggled thus far at the major league level, slashing only .213/.302/.351 with 7 HR in 62 games last year, and then hitting .162/.280/.206 with 0 HR in 23 games this year. But he has proven more than capable of hitting AAA pitching, slashing .375/.516/.604 in 14 games last year and a promising .300/.447/.683 in 17 games since being demoted this year. Whether he ultimately sticks in PIT as a catcher or an outfielder remains to be seen, but I have to imagine he'll be a good player for the Buccos for years to come.

2B Nick Gonzales

• Age: 25. 7th overall pick by PIT in the 2020 draft.

• Status: Earliest Free Agent year is 2030

• Career: An elite hitter at New Mexico State, Gonzales hit right away at High-A Greensboro in 2021, with 18 HR and a .303 average in 80 games. He has continued to hit well enough at AA in 2022 and AAA in 2023, but then didn't do much in his call-up last year, slashing only .209/.268/.348 in 35 games for the Pirates. This year he showed a mastery of AAA pitching by slashing .358/.431/.608 with 4 HR and 14 doubles in 30 games, and so got the call a few weeks ago and so far has hit .286/.359/482 with 2 HR and 2 SB in 16 games. He primarily plays 2B, but has also played some SS and 3B in the minors.

CF/2B Ji Hwan Bae

• Age: 24.

• Status: Earliest Free Agent year is 2029

• Career: First appearing in his age-18 season for the Pirates rookie league team in 2018, the following year Bae slashed .323/.403/.430 with 31 SB in 86 games at Single-A Greensboro. After the pandemic season of 2020 and a solid AA campaign in 2021, Bae hit .289 with 30 SB at AAA Indianapolis in 2022 and did well with a .333 average in 10 games in his MLB debut. In 2023 he slashed .344/.462/.531 in 9 games at AAA before playing most of the year in Pittsburgh. He led the team with 24 SB, but otherwise struggled to the tune of .231/.296/.311. In 2024 he once again demonstrated he can handle AAA pitching, slashing an impressive .367/.479/.551 with 4 HR and 7 SB in 27 games before again getting the call up just recently. While he can play SS, he has mostly split his time between 2B and CF as a professional thus far.

C/1B Endy Rodriguez

• Age: 24

• Status: Earliest Free Agent year is 2030

• Career: A switch-hitter, Rodriguez is out for the year rehabbing from elbow surgery. After playing two seasons of rookie-league ball in the Mets organization, Rodriguez joined the Pirates' A-level Bradenton club for his age-21 season in 2021. He made an impact by slashing .294/.380/.512 with 15 HR in 98 games. In 2022 he played at A+/AA/AAA levels, accumulating 25 HR, 39 doubles, and 95 RBI to go with a .323/.407/.590 slash. He split 2023 between AAA and Pittsburgh, but in the big leagues only managed to hit .220/.284/.328 with 3 HR in 57 games. How he returns from the surgery and season of rehab is the big question.

2B/SS Termarr Johnson

• Age: 19, drafted with the 4th overall pick by PIT in 2022

• Career: The youngest player I'm profiling in this write-up, Johnson needs to work on making more contact. In 2023, he hit only .244 with 120 strikeouts in 105 games at A-level. His plus-side was also evident, as he hit 18 HR, stole 10 bags, and has outstanding plate eye/discipline, as he walked 101 times in those 105 games, leading to an impressive .422 OBP. So far at A+ Greensboro in 2024 he is hitting an anemic .193, with 3 HR and 6 SB in 43 games—but again is taking a lot of walks leading to a .384 OBP.

The Pirates farm system has many other interesting position players, and they seem particularly well stocked at the middle-infield positions. Cruz is no doubt their SS for some time to come, and Gonzales, Bae, and eventually Johnson give them plenty of talent to cover 2B. Bae for now is playing CF as slugger Jack Suwinski was demoted and the signing of veteran Michael Taylor hasn't really worked out (.208/.258/.267). But they also have prospects like SS/2B Liover Peguero (age 23 at AAA), SS Mitch Jebb (22 at A+), Tsung-Che Cheng (22 at AA), SS/3B Jack Brannigan (23 at A+), and others.

The Pirates also have 26-year old Jared Triolo, who can play 2B, 3B, and 1B. He hit nicely as he progressed through the minors from 2021-2023, and then surprised by slashing .298/.388/.398 in 54 games for Pittsburgh in 2023. But he has not started 2024 out very well, batting only .204 with 3 HR in 49 games.

Another position of strength would seem to be catcher, where the Pirates not only have Davis and Rodriguez once he returns in 2025, but also traded for former Giants prospect Joey Bart. The second overall pick in the 2018 draft, Bart was touted as the heir to Buster Posey. Whether it was the pressure of that tag or other reasons, Bart proved he could handle minor-league pitching but struggled to do much offensively with the Giants. At age 27, he just might be able to right the ship with the Pirates, as he so far has slashed .267/.362/.517 with 4 HR in 22 games. That is potentially good news for Bucs fans, as he won't be a free agent until 2028.

From what I can tell, where the Pirates organization is not as deep is with strong hitting 1B and outfielders. Suffice to say the Rowdy Tellez experiment does not seem to be working, as he is hitting .175 with just 1 HR in 45 games. And the hope was that 25-year old Jack Suwinski would take another step forward in 2024, after hitting 26 HR with 13 SB in 2023. But his ugly .224 average and 172 strikeouts last year regressed further to start 2024 as he was hitting just .174/.268/.297 when he was recently demoted to AAA.

Edward Olivares came over from the Royals and is still only 28, but he isn't excelling so far this year with a .243/.303/.414 slash line and 5 HR in 33 games. Better has been 31 year old Connor Joe, who plays a mix of OF and 1B, and returned to the Pirates organization in 2023. Originally drafted by the Pirates in the late first round in 2014, he bounced around the minors and majors for the Pirates, Braves, Dodgers, Giants and Rockies organizations. He's off to a good start in 2024, slashing .280/.351/.458 with 6 HR. I'm not sure if factors into the Pirates plans long-term, but he will be arbitration eligible in 2025, and won't be a free agent until 2028.

Of course fan-favorite Andrew McCutchen, at age 37, is not who he used to be. He's had some bad luck this year, but has a good eye at the plate which gave him a .378 OBP last year and a rising OBP this year after a slow start. He had 27 HR as recently as 2021, and so far has 7 HR in 43 games in 2024. As long as he wants to keep playing, as a fan I'd be fine with the Pirates continuing to sign him to one-year deals so he can be a part-time DH/OF and clubhouse leader for the coming winning seasons that I'm predicting.

So besides being opportunistic in pitching trades/free agent signings, it would seem the main needs going into 2025 would be to acquire at least one, maybe two, impact 1B/OF hitters. I don't see ownership suddenly becoming big spenders, so that rules out guys like 1B Pete Alonso, OF Juan Soto, OF Teoscar Hernandez, and OF Cody Bellinger. But some of the following guys might be reasonably priced, as either superstars who are past their prime, or guys who've had some inconsistency in their careers: 1B Paul Goldschmidt, 1B Rhys Hoskins, 1B Anthony Rizzo, 1B Josh Bell (once a solid Pirate!), 1B Christian Walker, 1B/OF Ryan O'Hearn, OF Alex Verdugo, OF Michael Conforto, OF Joey Gallo, OF Tyler O'Neill, OF Joc Pederson, OF Anthony Santander, OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF Max Kepler, OF Harrison Bader, OF Mark Canha, OF Mitch Haniger, OF Hunter Renfroe, OF Manuel Margot, OF Charlie Blackmon, OF Adam Duvall, OF Randal Grichuk, OF Jason Heyward, and OF Jurickson Profar.

Not all of those guys are equally attractive for the Pirates of course, but I sure hope Pittsburgh management goes after some of them or fills their gaps via trades if necessary. If they do, then the playoffs in 2025-27 and beyond would seem to be in reach... and with Skenes, Jones, and Keller as the likely post-season starters, anything could happen!

All data is from Baseball-Reference.com, and also their subscription service Stathead.com. If you are a big sports fan, be sure to check out the latest features at Stathead and the Sports Reference family of sites.

Did you know? I wrote a book with the same title as this Substack newsletter / blog: Now Taking the Field: Baseball’s All-Time Dream Teams for All 30 Franchises. It was published in early 2019, by ACTA Sports, the publisher of the annual Bill James Handbook and other popular titles. You can learn more about it at www.NowTakingTheField.com, or buy directly at Amazon and other booksellers.