The Baseball Buffet for 9/22/2024

Issue #198

What follows is a preview, a beta-test of sorts, of what I hope will be a daily in-season newsletter that I’ll produce in the future—hopefully as soon as next season. My intent is to write in “smart brevity” style (mostly short bullets, getting to the point, with quick analysis/insights), providing useful and interesting information, first about yesterday’s games, and then more a preview of today’s games coming up. Specific features and info provided would be mostly consistent from day to day, with some tweaks here and there—especially as I get feedback from readers like you! What do you think of the below—let me know in the comments or shoot me an email at [email protected].

Today we have a full slate of late-September games, including:

• Heat in Cincinnati. It will be both around 90 degrees at 1:10pm gametime… and the starting pitchers are PIT rookie sensation Paul Skenes and CIN fireballer Hunter Greene. Both teams strikeout a lot, but Great American is a hitter’s park. Skenes-day is must watch baseball, but even more so given the matchup today.

• Blake Snell is taking on the surprising Royals. Snell started the season late and didn’t do well. But in July/August/September he has been outstanding: 74.1 IP, 31 hits, 105 K, 1.33 ERA, and .125 Opp BA. The Royals need to keep winning to secure their AL wildcard spot—and they don’t strikeout much (second least in all of MLB), so this should be a fun matchup.

• ATL is two games back of NYM for the third and final NL Wild Card. Another win against the hapless Marlins would be very helpful.

• Only two games separate KCR, MIN, DET, and SEA for the final two AL Wild Card spots. Due to a rainout yesterday, MIN has a double-header today in Boston.

I’ll have more on what to watch for today in a moment, but first let’s get caught up on yesterday’s action…

Highlights from yesterday’s games on 9/21/2024

• PIT 1, CIN 7 - CIN SP Rhett Lowder threw 5 shutout innings to win the battle of young rookie pitchers over PIT Jared Jones. Elly de la Cruz hit his 25th HR and 35th double.

• WSH 5, CHC 1 - WSH SP MacKenzie Gore threw seven 1-hit innings, striking out 9.

• DET 6, BAL 4 (10) - DET scored two in the tenth, for a much needed win in the battle for a wildcard spot.

• TOR 2, TBR 3 - Vlad went 3-5 in a losing effort, raising his season BA to .324, second only to Bobby Witt Jr.’s .334 mark.

• PHI 3, NYM 6 - NYM got a much needed win in their attempt to holdoff the Braves for the third NL wildcard spot. SS Luisangel Acuña (younger brother of Ronald Acuña Jr.) went 2-3 and is now 10-26 since his mid-September call-up.

• ATL 6, MIA 2 - ATL kept pace with the NYM in their battle for a wildcard spot. Matt Olson has gotten hot at the right time, going 2-4 with a HR, and is now 7-17 with 4 HR in last five games.

• SFG 9, KCR 0 - 👶🏻Dad power! The Giants’ offense was spearheaded by Matt Chapman who had 2 HR just hours after returning from the paternity list. Also, after dominating in the minors for a few years, 26-year old Landen Roupp came up and pitched out the Giants bullpen before yesterday making his third major league start (5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 K).

• LAA 4, HOU 10 - LAA catcher Logan O’Hoppe when 4-4 with a HR and 2 doubles in a losing effort after his battery mate Reid Detmers was shelled to the tune of 9 hits and 7 ER in the first two innings. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker each had 4 hits, including a HR and a double.

• AZ 5, MIL 0 - In a game that meant a lot more to Arizona than Milwaukee, SP Merrill Kelly and three relievers combined for a 2-hit shutout and 2B Ketel Marte went 2-2 with a HR and 3 walks.

• CLE 5, STL 6 - After CLE came back in the 8th, STL closer Ryan Helsley struck out the side in the 9th to locked down his 46th save, now tied with Emmanuel Clase for the MLB lead. In a losing effort, José Ramírez hit his 37th HR—which along with his 40 SB gives him a shot at the 40/40 club (and likely another top-5 AL MVP finish).

• SEA 8, TEX 4 - After going 3-5 with 2 HR on Friday, SEA CF Julio Rodríguez went 4-6 with a HR, SB, and 4 RBI yesterday.

• CWS 2, SDP 6 - The White Sox lost their 119th game, one away from the 1962 Mets record 120 losses (their excuse: it was their first season as an expansion team). It is hard to win when your starting nine all have batting averages below .250, and four are below .200.

• NYY 10, OAK 0 - Recipe for victory: SP Carlos Rodón throws 6 shutout innings + HR by Aaron Judge (54), Giancarlo Stanton 26), and Anthony Volpe (12).

• COL 6, LAD 3 - Walker Buehler struck out 9, but left losing 4-3 after 5.1 IP and LAD couldn’t rally back.

• MIN vs. BOS - PPD. Rescheduled as a double-header today.

Who’s on the move?

I won’t list 26th-man moves, or every time a team shuttles relievers back and forth to AAA to keep a stock of fresh arms in the bullpen. But here are what I see as more significant transactions (see all the latest MLB transactions):

⬇️ Demotions:

• BAL 3B prospect Coby Mayo has struggled (4-41, 22 strikeouts) in his MLB debut.

• BOS mixed SP/RP hurler Cooper Criswell (4.08 ERA in 99 IP) was optioned back to AAA to make for Luis Garcia who is back from injury.

• WSH SS CJ Abrams, who is a star on the team but apparently was out late the night before and the team is not happy about that? (Presumably a fine would have been levied instead if the Nationals were in contention.)

🤕 Going on the IL:

• TEX SP Max Scherzer

• STL SP Sonny Gray

• BOS 3B Rafael Devers

• HOU RP Taylor Scott

🛠️Starting rehab assignments:

• NYM SP Kodai Senga

• PHI OF Austin Hays

Who is streaking on the field?

Not THAT kind of streaking… I mean consecutive hit streaks:

• Jose Iglesias, NYM - 16 games, with a .413 BA during that stretch.

• Alejandro Kirk, TOR - 15 games, with a more modest .286 BA.

• Nolan Schanuel, LAA - 13 games, with a .346 BA and 5 SB.

• Fernando Tatis Jr., SDP - 11 games, with a .354 BA, 5 HR, and 6 doubles. Definitely seeing the ball well lately!

On this day in baseball history…

Here is what stands out to me (for a longer list, see the September 22 page at The Baseball Almanac):

• 1911 - Cy Young, at age 44, beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 1-0 for his 511th and final Major League victory.

• 1920 - A Chicago grand jury convenes to investigate charges that eight White Sox players conspired to fix the 1919 World Series.

• 1935 - The Boston Braves lose their 110th game for a new National League record. They will lose 115, which remains the record until the 1962 expansion New York Mets lose 120 in a 162-game schedule… which it appears will be soon surpassed by this year’s 2024 Chicago White Sox!

• 1957 - Duke Snider's 39th and 40th home runs are the last that will be hit at Ebbets Field.

• 1968 - Cesar Tovar played one inning at each position for the Minnesota Twins, becoming only the second Major Leaguer in history to do it. Bert Campaneris of the Oakland A's was the other (at that time).

• 1986 - Fernando Valenzuela of Los Angeles became the first Mexican to win 20 games, beating the Houston Astros 9-2 while allowing just two hits.

• 1990 - Andre Dawson of the Chicago Cubs stole his 300th base in an 11-5 loss to the New York Mets, becoming only the second player with 300 homers, 300 steals and 2,000 hits. Willie Mays was the other. Others now in that club include Steve Finley, Álex Rodríguez, Barry Bonds, and Carlos Beltrán. (Bobby Bonds and Reggie Sanders have the 300/300 numbers, but fell short of 2,000 hits.)

Birthday Boys

• SS Jeremy Peña, 1997: 2022-2024, Gold Glove in his 2022 rookie season, and also was the ALCS and World Series MVP that year.

• SS Carlos Correa, 1994: 2015-2024, 3-time All-Star, six 20+ HR seasons, 2015 AL ROY, 126 OPS+

• SS Alexei Ramírez, 1981: 2008-2016, All-Star in 2014, 115 HR, 143 SB

• OF Vince Coleman, 1961: 1985-1997, NL ROY in 1985, two-time All-Star, led NL in SB in his first six seasons, including 1985-1987 with 100+ SB each year.

• OF Jeff Leonard, 1955: 1977-1990, 2-time All-Star, 144 HR, 163 SB.

• SP/MGR Larry Dierker, 1946: 1964-1977, 2-time All-Star; manager of Astros from 1997-2001, including winning the NL central in 1998 with a 102-60 record.

• SP Bob Lemon (HOF), 1920: 1946-1958, missed first three seasons due to WWII, 7-time All-Star and seven-time 20+ game winner. Lifetime 207-128 record with 3.23 ERA.

• SP Urban Shocker, 1890: 1916-1928, four-time 20+ game winner, including an AL-leading 27 wins in 1921.

Enjoy today’s games! What follows are additional items to watch for today (content that in the future will likely be reserved for paid subscribers only.)

HR Watch

Betting on guys to hit a HR on any give day is tough, but here are a few who seem well-poised for today’s games:

• TBR Brandon Lowe, 5-11 with 3HR, D vs. Chris Bassitt (and note the TOR bullpen has given up the most HR of any team this year)

• BAL Anthony Santander, 2-2 with 2HR vs. Casey Mize (small sample with only two PA, but has 43 HR on the year)

• HOU Kyle Tucker, 4-13 with 2HR vs. Griffin Canning

• HOU Yordan Alvarez, 5-11 with 2HR vs Griffin Canning

• LAD Mookie Betts, 7-16, 2HR, D vs. Antonio Senzatela (and a generally bad COL bullpen)

Hits Watch

If you play MLB’s Beat the Streak mobile game, or otherwise bet on/parlay players to collect hits, here are some interesting options for today:

• See Betts and Alvarez above.

• MIL William Contreras is 3-8 vs. lefty Jordan Montgomery. Small sample size, but he has extreme splits and hits LHP far better than RHP.

And then here are players who usually hit near the top of their respective batting lineups (so they get the most plate appearances) and have nice hitting streaks going right now:

• See NYM Iglesias, LAA Schanuel, and SDP Tatis above.

• PHI Kyle Schwarber, 7 games — though I generally don’t count on Schwarbs to get a hit every day.

• ATL Michael Harris II, 7 games

• CIN Elly De La Cruz, 7 games

• COL Ezequiel Tovar, 6 games

• LAA Taylor Ward, 6 games

• ATL Marcell Ozuna, 6 games

• LAD Shohei Ohtani, 6 games

Who might struggle today?

Betting against any given player to not get a hit is tough, as starters get at least one hit in a game more often than not. That said, here are some guys who clearly have struggled against their opposing SP today:

• LAD Will Smith, 1-14, 3K vs. Antonio Senzatela (though not a large sample, and the COL bullpen isn’t very good)

• TBR Josh Lowe, 1-12, 5K vs. Chris Bassitt (again, not a large sample, and the TOR bullpen isn’t very good)

• ARI Eugenio Suarez, 1-7, 5K vs. Frankie Montas (he could get a hit today, but it seems likely he’ll add to his 163 strikeouts on the year)

Pitcher Strikeouts to Watch

It is a fun challenge to bet on starting pitcher strikeouts—whether over/under the given line, or laddering up the Alternative K lines when you think a pitcher could really dominate.

• As noted above, PIT Paul Skenes and CIN Hunter Greene are facing each other today and both the Pirates and Reds strikeout a lot (5th and 7th most, respectively).

• TEX Andrew Heaney vs. SEA who K the most of any team in baseball. Though his last start was against the Mariners and he only managed 3 K in 5 IP, he has 152 in 150.1 IP this year overall.

• LAD Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. COL who K the second most of any team. He has been limited to only 4 IP in his first two starts back, but the Dodgers might let him go longer to as he builds up for postseason duties. He has 95 K in 82 IP this season.

• MIN Pablo Lopez in game of double-header vs. BOS, who K the third most of any team in baseball. He has 187 K in 175.2 IP, and 9+ in three of his last five starts.

• NYY Luis Gil vs. OAK who K the fourth most of any team. He has 161 K in 140.2 IP this season.

• SDP Yu Darvish vs. CWS who actually K at about league average rate, but are so bad in general—if very many of Darvish’s ten or so different pitches are clicking, then he could rack up the whiffs.

As noted above, Blake Snell has been great lately, and he is generally a K-machine. But today could be tougher as the Royals have the second least strikeouts this year.

Offenses Most Likely to Explode Today

• BOS at home at Fenway (in what is now game 2 of a double-header) against MIN with SP Zebby Matthews (Daniel Zebulon Matthews). A control artist in the minors, Matthews has only walked 6 in 30 IP so far in the majors—the problem is he has given up 9 HR in seven starts with a 6.30 ERA.

• MIL at home, against ARI and still struggling SP Jordan Montgomery, who has allowed 10 ER in his last four starts (only 13.1 IP). Has a 5.16 ERA overall with 28 HR allowed in 162.1 IP.

• HOU at home, against LAA and inconsistent SP Griffin Canning. He has pitched well against two extremes lately in LAD and CWS, but between those games allowed 9 ER in 5.2 IP @MIN. (He pitched OK, with 5 ER in 11.1 IP, against HOU in two games earlier this year, but several Astros have hit him well, including Tucker, Alvarez, Bregman, and Diaz.)

• LAD at home, against COL with SP Antonio Senzatela making his second start of the year. The Rockies have the highest relievers’ ERA (5.30) of any team, though some of that is because of their home ballpark effect (not relevant today).

Other generally good offenses that are up against average-or-worse SP include the BAL at DET (Casey Mize), ATL at MIA (Darren McCaughan), and NYY at OAK (Joey Estes).

NRFI Fun

And finally… NRFI means no runs in the first inning. It is a fun thing to bet on. Here are some interesting games to consider (thanks to bettingpros.com for the stats):

• PIT vs. CIN. Paul Skenes is 16-5 (76%) at NRFI, while Hunter Greene is even better at 21-3 (88%). PIT hitters are 78% and CIN hitters are 74%… the one concern of course is the game is at Great American in Cincinnati (a hitters’ park).

• SFG vs. KCR. Blake Snell is 16-3 (84%) at NRFI, while Seth Lugo is 27-4 (87%). SFG hitters are 74% and KCR hitters are 72%.

• WAS vs. CHC. Jake Irvin is 23-8 (74%) at NRFI, while Shota Imanaga is 24-4 (86%). WAS hitters are 80% and CHC hitters are 74%.

Thanks for reading. As I said, the above is a preview, a beta-test of sorts, of what I hope will be a daily in-season newsletter that I’ll produce in the future. What do you think? Let me know in the comments or shoot me an email at [email protected].