Strong September or Second Half in 2024... and Spring Training 2025?

Issue #224

Major League Baseball has a long regular season—162 games per team, spread essentially over six months from April through September (with a few games in late March and spilling into early October). Players can go hot and cold for weeks or even a month or two at a time. So we can’t read too much into a player having a really good month here or there—statistically it is bound to happen over time.

That said, as a new season approaches, I do like to look back on the previous year’s final month to remind myself of who finished strong. And I also glance at who did particularly well during the entire second of the year too. Above average play during either of those periods—the final month of September (plus the few October games), and the period from roughly July through the end of the year—might be an indication that a player has turned a corner in their career, figured out something new, etc., such that the improved performance could continue into 2025. Or it might not—after all, these aren’t huge samples, so the improved numbers might not carry over.

It is also the case that spring training statistics are notoriously unreliable predictors of performance for that upcoming season. There are a lot of minor league level players getting playing time for evaluation. The returning major leaguers are getting into season shape again, sometimes nursing injuries, and often experimenting with new pitches, tweaks to their batting stances, or trying out new defensive positions. So I really don’t pay attention to spring training stats much at all.

But… what if a player BOTH did well in either September of the previous year and/or the entire second half… AND does really well during spring training of the current year? Could that combination be a sign that maybe he’ll have a good season coming up? Again, perhaps it is just noise in the numbers—but I do think that combining these two things increases the chances that it might mean something.

So with that in mind, I looked up players who did really well in September of 2024, or the entire second half of 2024, and then checked to see how they are doing this spring. I’m not going to list superstars here who had great seasons last year—hitters like Judge, Ohtani, Witt, etc., or pitchers like Skubal, Skenes, Burnes, or Crochet (though for what its worth all four of those starters finished well last year and are posting nice spring training numbers).

Instead, my focus here is on the lesser name guys—some are rising stars or future stars, some are just solid veterans. But regardless, these are the guys whose numbers jumped out to me as having had strong 2024 finishes and strong 2025 spring training numbers too (through March 17).

Hitters

Randal Grichuk, OF, ARI - he looks like he’ll be in the mix for OF and DH at-bats for the Diamondbacks this year.
September 2024: 19-47 with 7 HR, 5 D, 19 RBI, 15 R, .404/.451/.957
Spring Training 2025: 9-27 with 2 HR, 2 D, 9 RBI, .333/.379/.630

Ivan Herrera, C, STL - taking over the primary catching duties, with the Cardinals shifting Willson Contreras to 1B with the departure of Goldschmidt.
September 2024: 16-42 with 2 HR, 4 D, .381/.480/.619
Spring Training 2025: 9-26 with 1 HR, 1 T, 4 D, .346/.471/.692

Eugenio Suarez, 3B, ARI - should be the primary 3B for the Diamondbacks this year.
September 2024: 35-101 with 9 HR, 3 D, 18 RBI, 24 R, .347/.385/.644
Second Half of 2024: 77-251 with 20 HR, 14 D, .307/.341/.602
Spring Training 2025: 11-37 with 2 HR, 4 D, 14 RBI, .297/.417/.568

Wyatt Langford, OF, TEX - will be the Rangers primary LF this year.
September 2024: 30-100 with 8 HR, 7 D, 20 RBI, 25 R, .300/.386/.610
Spring Training 2025: 7-17 with 1 HR, .412/.474/.588

Otto Lopez, 2B, MIA - looks to be the Marlins primary 2B this year.
September 2024: 33-96 with 3 HR, 8 D, 4 SB, 14 RBI, 15 R, .344/.382/.521
Spring Training 2025: 12-37 with 2 HR, 1 D, .324/.366/.514

Kyle Manzardo, DH, CLE - should get a lot of at-bats at DH for Cleveland this year.
September 2024: 17-63 with 5 HR, 2 D, .270/.333/.540
Spring Training 2025: 14-38 with 3 HR, 2 D, .368/.415/.658

Lawrence Butler, OAK, OF - many noticed his strong second half, and he could be a star in RF for the A's in 2025.
Second Half of 2024: 71-237 with 13 HR, 17 D, 12 SB, .300/.345/.553
Spring Training 2025: 13-37 with 2 HR, 1 T, 2 D, .351/.359/.649

Xavier Edwards, MIA, SS - high average hitter who can steal bases, should be Lopez’s DP partner for the Marlins this year.
Second Half of 2024: 68-211 with 1 HR, 5 T, 8 D, 28 SB, .322/.390/.422
Spring Training 2025: 13-39 with 6 D, 2 SB, .333/.435/.487

Pitchers

For pitchers I’m only looking at starters, as both one-month stats and spring training stats for relievers are such a small sample, it just seems too prone to randomness.

MacKenzie Gore - WAS
September 2024: 5 GS, 28.2 IP, 13 H, 35 K, 1.26 ERA, 0.802 WHIP
Spring Training 2025: 3 games, 13.1 IP, 11 H, 14 K, 1.35 ERA

Nick Pivetta - SD
September 2024: 5 GS, 28.1 IP, 22 H, 31 K, 2.54 ERA, 1.059 WHIP
Spring Training 2025: 3 games, 8.1 IP, 5 H, 12 K, 5.40 ERA (high ERA, but the other numbers are good here)

Nick Martinez - CIN
September 2024: 5 GS, 32.2 IP, 18 H, 30 K, 0.83 ERA, 0.674 WHIP
Second Half of 2024: 11 GS, 70.1 IP, 56 H, 60 K, 2.30 ERA, 0.924 WHIP
Spring Training 2025: 3 games, 8 IP, 6 H, 9 K, 3.38 ERA

Tylor Megill - NYM
September 2024: 5 GS, 25.2 IP, 20 H, 30 K, 2.45 ERA, 1.130 WHIP
Spring Training 2025: 3 games, 11.2 IP, 10 H, 13 K, 3.86 ERA

Christopher Sanchez - PHI
September 2024: 5 GS, 29.2 IP, 24 H, 29 K, 2.43 ERA, 1.079 WHIP
Spring Training 2025: 4 games, 11.2 IP, 8 H, 17 K, 2.31 ERA

Bryce Miller - SEA
September 2024: 5 GS, 29.2 IP, 16 H, 28 K, 1.52 ERA, 0.944 WHIP
Second Half of 2024: 12 GS, 71.1 IP, 44 H, 73 K, 1.89 ERA, 0.841 WHIP
Spring Training 2025: 3 games, 9 IP, 6 H, 12 K, 4.00 ERA (has let up 4 ER, but otherwise good numbers here)

Framber Valdez - HOU
September 2024: 4 GS, 26.0 IP, 20 H, 23 K, 1.73 ERA, 1.077 WHIP
Second Half of 2024: 12 GS, 78 IP, 46 H, 87 K, 1.96 ERA, 0.885 WHIP
Spring Training 2025: 4 games, 10.2 IP, 9 H, 10 K, 2.53 ERA

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