Ranking the Starting Rotations of the Potential NL Playoff Teams

Issue #22

In this second of two articles I'm reviewing the starting pitching options for the NL teams that are playoff contenders (see the AL contenders article). Who has the best staff for the rest of August and September, and then the playoffs for those who make it? Here is how I'd rank them as of today (stats are through August 24):

Dodgers

• Clayton Kershaw (L) 7-3, 2.64 ERA, 0.984 WHIP

• Julio Urías (L) 13-7, 2.36 ERA, 0.958 WHIP

• Tony Gonsolin (R) 16-1, 2.10 ERA, 0.865 WHIP

• Tyler Anderson (L) 13-2, 2.73 ERA, 1.020 WHIP

• Andrew Heaney (L) 2-1, 1.94 ERA, 1.008 WHIP

Walker Buehler is out for the rest of the season, so that was a major blow—especially as he is a right-hander in this otherwise lefty-dominated rotation. Andrew Heaney has come back, and while he averages less than 5 IP per game, he has pitched very well overall (1.94 ERA). Kershaw is out for now, but will be back soon, at which point the Dodgers have a very solid 5-man rotation. 24-year old Dustin May struck out nine in five innings in his first appearance back from injury and rehab, and Ryan Pepiot (4.02 ERA over 7 starts) is also available as necessary.

Braves

• Max Fried (L) 12-4, 2.52 ERA, 1.024 WHIP

• Charlie Morton (R) 6-5, 3.99 ERA, 1.175 WHIP

• Spencer Strider (R) 7-4, 2.95 ERA, 1.023 WHIP

• Kyle Wright (R) 16-5, 2.99 ERA, 1.131 WHIP

• Jake Odorizzi (R) 5-5, 3.95 ERA, 1.268 WHIP (combined)

After the acquisition of Odorizzi, the inconsistent 24-year old Ian Anderson (10-6, but a 5.00 ERA and 1.513 WHIP) was returned to AAA for the time being. He could come back of course, giving the Braves plenty of depth, especially as they also have Bryce Elder (4.45 ERA) available for spot starts when needed.

Mets

• Jacob deGrom (R) 2-1, 2.31 ERA, 0.514 WHIP

• Max Scherzer (R) 9-3, 2.33 ERA, 0.942 WHIP

• Chris Bassitt (R) 11-7, 3.26 ERA, 1.128 WHIP

• Carlos Carrasco (R) 13-5, 3.92 ERA, 1.298 WHIP

• Taijuan Walker (R) 10-3, 3.38 ERA, 1.202 WHIP

With apologies to Dodgers and Braves fans, if this were a ranking of the best 1-2 punch, then the Mets would be at the top. But with apologies to Mets fans, overall I think their 5-man rotation, is at best on par with LA and Atlanta, and I rank them a close third. (I guess in a post-season 7-game series, if they can use deGrom and Scherzer for four starts, then I might rate them number one here.)

Carrasco is out with an oblique injury, but seems to be progressing well. With the current health of deGrom and Scherzer, David Peterson, the lone southpaw here, was the odd man out. He came back up for a start on August 20th, but let up 8 hits in 4.2 IP against the Phillies. Trevor Williams started the other game of that August 20th double-header, and has posted a fine 2.84 ERA as a mixed starter/reliever. Tylor Megill was not consistently effective as a starter, with a 5.01 ERA over 9 starts, so when he returns he'll be available for depth but no doubt will pitch mostly out of the bullpen.

Phillies

• Aaron Nola (R) 8-10, 3.25 ERA, 0.958 WHIP

• Zack Wheeler (R) 11-7, 3.07 ERA, 1.080 WHIP

• Ranger Suárez (L) 8-5, 3.38 ERA, 1.308 WHIP

• Noah Syndergaard (R) 8-8, 3.77 ERA, 1.229 WHIP (combined)

• Kyle Gibson (R) 8-5, 4.30 ERA, 1.212 WHIP

The Phillies fortified their rotation by bringing in former NL-East standout Noah Syndergaard. I think that was a good move, but it doesn't change the summary here from "two studs at the top, and then pretty good 3-5 guys". Zach Eflin (4.37 ERA) will presumably return at some point for some late-season depth, and lefty Bailey Falter (4.40 ERA) has a been a mix of starter, reliever, and AAA pitcher this year (though keep an eye on him, since he has posted a 1.91 ERA in 9 AAA starts).

Brewers

• Corbin Burnes (R) 9-6, 2.84 ERA, 0.965 WHIP

• Brandon Woodruff (R) 9-3, 3.51 ERA, 1.149 WHIP

• Freddy Peralta (R) 4-3, 4.08 ERA, 1.169 WHIP

• Eric Lauer (L) 9-5, 3.44 ERA, 1.209 WHIP

• Adrian Houser (R) 4-9, 5.15 ERA, 1.551 WHIP

• Aaron Ashby (L) 2-10, 4.58 ERA, 1.433 WHIP

The three-headed monster of Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff isn't what it was last year, but the Brewers still have a solid staff. If the they make the playoffs, using a 4-man rotation seems very likely, since Houser, Ashby (currently on the IL), and rookie starter/reliever Jason Alexander (5.26 ERA), haven't amounted to a consistent solution to the five-spot.

Padres

• Joe Musgrove (R) 8-6, 2.91 ERA, 1.014 WHIP

• Yu Darvish (R) 10-7, 3.39 ERA, 0.989 WHIP

• Sean Manaea (L) 7-6, 4.64 ERA, 1.292 WHIP

• Blake Snell (L) 5-7, 4.24 ERA, 1.345 WHIP

• Mike Clevinger 4-5, 3.59 ERA, 1.158 WHIP

Solid, veteran rotation here, with ages ranging from 29-35. That said, Darvish and Snell are having good seasons but it seems are past their prime (though Snell has a 12.0 K/9 mark). Manaea hasn't had the breakout year many had hoped he might, but it has been nice to see Clevinger back in action. If injuries strike, depth comes from Nick Martinez (3.10 ERA in 10 starts and 31 total games pitched).

Cardinals

• Adam Wainwright (R) 9-9, 3.11 ERA, 1.171 WHIP

• Miles Mikolas (R) 10-10, 3.35 ERA, 1.024 WHIP

• Jordan Montgomery (L) 7-3, 3.08 ERA, 1.012 WHIP (combined)

• José Quintana (L) 4-5, 3.45 ERA, 1.296 WHIP (combined)

• Dakota Hudson (R) 6-6, 4.33 ERA, 1.417 WHIP

Again, a solid, veteran group here too. For depth, the Cardinals might soon get Jack Flaherty, still only 26, back from ongoing injury issues. And Steven Matz should come back from injury and rehab before the end of the year, but if/when he does he'll be in a relief role given his 5.70 ERA in 10 starts earlier this year.

Giants

• Logan Webb (R) 11-7, 3.33 ERA, 1.192 WHIP

• Carlos Rodón (L) 12-6, 2.81 ERA, 1.032 WHIP

• Alex Wood (L) 8-10, 4.54 ERA, 1.220 WHIP

• Alex Cobb (R) 4-6, 3.99 ERA, 1.302 WHIP

• Jakob Junis (R) 4-3, 3.58 ERA, 1.103 WHIP

I hesitated to even include the Giants here, but did so for the Bay Area fans who are still hopeful they can make a run. The 1-2 (or 2-1) righty/lefty combo at the top is elite. Wood, Cobb, and Junis aren't awful, but they are one of several reasons that even if the Giants do make the postseason, they aren't likely to go very deep.

See my earlier, similar article for the starting pitchers on American League contenders.