Ranking the Starting Rotations of the Potential AL Playoff Teams

Issue #18

In this first of a two-part series, I'm reviewing the starting pitching options for the AL teams that are playoff contenders. Who has the best staff for the rest of August and September, and then the playoffs for those who make it? Here is how I'd rank them as of today (stats are through August 13):

Astros

• Justin Verlander (R) 15-3, 1.85 ERA, 0.860 WHIP

• Framber Valdez (L) 11-4, 2.73 ERA, 1.127 WHIP

• Cristian Javier (R) 6-8, 3.14 ERA, 1.047 WHIP

• Luis Garcia (R) 9-8, 4.03 ERA, 1.132 WHIP

• Jose Urquidy (R) 11-4, 3.85 ERA, 1.165 WHIP

Aside from Verlander, there isn't a lot of star power here—just quality pitching. If all healthy, they have both strength and depth, further bolstered by Lance McCullers coming back from the IL and doing well in his first start with 5 K, 2 H, 0 ER in 6 IP.

Yankees

• Gerrit Cole (R) 9-4, 3.38 ERA, 1.019 WHIP

• Nestor Cortes (L) 9-3, 2.67 ERA, 1.000 WHIP

• Frankie Montas (R) 4-9, 3.59 ERA, 1.189 WHIP (combined)

• Jameson Taillon (R) 11-2, 3.95 ERA, 1.144 WHIP

• Domingo Germán (R) 1-2, 4.18 ERA, 1.437 WHIP

With the acquisition of Montas, and Germán coming back, the Yankees had a surplus of starters—hence the trade of Montgomery to the Cardinals for CF Harrison Bader. Luis Severino was doing well this year, and should be back at some point in September—at which point the Yankees will be pretty loaded.

Blue Jays

• Kevin Gausman (R) 8-8, 2.91 ERA, 1.232 WHIP

• Alek Manoah (R) 12-5, 2.56 ERA, 1.022 WHIP

• Jose Berrios (R) 8-5, 5.61 ERA, 1.385 WHIP

• Ross Stripling (R) 5-3, 3.16 ERA, 1.101 WHIP

• Yusei Kikuchi (L) 4-6, 5.13 ERA, 1.494 WHIP

• Mitch White (R) 1-3, 3.72 ERA, 1.270 (combined)

Very strong 1-2, and then some question marks. White was acquired recently and starting while Stripling has been on the IL. Both of their numbers are stronger than Kikuchi's this year, so it will be interesting to see what they do with Stripling coming back.

Mariners

• Luis Castillo (R) 5-4, 2.71 ERA, 1.043 WHIP (combined)

• Robbie Ray (L) 8-8, 3.90 ERA, 1.191 WHIP

• Logan Gilbert (R) 10-5, 3.47 ERA, 1.232 WHIP

• Marco Gonzales (L) 7-12, 4.18 ERA, 1.407

• George Kirby (R) 4-3, 3.39 ERA, 1.200 WHIP

• Chris Flexen (R) 7-9, 3.86 ERA, 1.387 WHIP

With the emergence of George Kirby, the Mariners already had five starters and nice R-L balance even. But that didn't stop them from acquiring the top available pitcher at the trade deadline in Luis Castillo, who I'd now consider to be their #1. They also picked up Matthew Boyd at the trade deadline. He hasn't pitched yet this year and is currently rehabbing in AAA, so should he join the Mariners for their final push I'm assuming he'd pitch out of the bullpen.

White Sox

• Dylan Cease (R) 12-5, 1.96 ERA, 1.142

• Lucas Giolito (R) 9-6, 4.92 ERA, 1.491 WHIP

• Michael Kopech (R) 4-8, 3.18 ERA, 1.185 WHIP

• Lance Lynn (R) 2-5, 5.88 ERA, 1.291 WHIP

• Johnny Cueto (R) 4-5, 2.91 ERA, 1.225 WHIP

Cease's ERA just keeps going lower and lower. Giolito and Lynn have not done as well as hoped, though Cueto has really worked out nicely. Vince Velasquez is on the IL, and I assume when he returns he'll work out of the bullpen until needed as a spot starter or injury replacement.

Rays  

• Shane McClanahan (L) 11-5, 2.28 ERA, 0.871 WHIP

• Corey Kluber (R) 7-7, 4.40 ERA, 1.191 WHIP

• Jeffrey Springs (L) 4-3, 2.56 ERA, 1.091 WHIP

• Drew Rasmussen (R) 6-4, 2.96 ERA, 1.172 WHIP

• Ryan Yarbrough (L) 0-7, 5.08 ERA, 1.359 WHIP

Similar to the White Sox at the top, McClanahan is a Cy Young Award candidate. Kluber, Springs, and Rasmussen are doing fine (including Rasmussen having an excellent start yesterday), but aren't overly impressive as the rest of a playoff rotation. The Rays have a lot of starting pitchers who are in various stages of rehabbing, with the two most intriguing being Tyler Glasnow and Shane Baz, but also including Yonny Chirinos, Brendan McKay, and Josh Fleming.

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Guardians

• Shane Bieber (R) 7-6, 3.21 ERA, 1.094 WHIP

• Triston McKenzie (R) 8-9, 3.14 ERA, 0.965 WHIP

• Cal Quantrill (R) 9-5, 3.67 ERA, 1.223 WHIP

• Zach Plesac (R) 2-10, 4.32 ERA, 1.317 WHIP

• Aaron Civale (R) 2-5, 6.05 ERA, 1.414 WHIP

A strong 1-2 here for sure, and Quantrill is having a good season overall. But should the Guardians make it to the post-season, it is a good thing that rotations shrink to 3 or 4 at most.

Twins

• Sonny Gray 6-3, 3.33 ERA, 1.159 WHIP

• Joe Ryan 8-5, 3.95 ERA, 1.129 WHIP

• Tyler Mahle 6-7, 4.26 ERA, 1.212 WHIP (combined)

• Dylan Bundy 6-5, 4.76 ERA, 1.261 WHIP

• Chris Archer 2-5, 4.02, 1.289 WHIP

Mahle was a good acquisition before the trade deadline, but not a game changer I don't think. Bailey Ober will come back from the IL, and Devin Smeltzer could be in the mix if necessary, but this rotation feels like one that is good, but not great, for a playoff team.

Red Sox

• Nathan Eovaldi (R) 5-3, 4.15 ERA, 1.264 WHIP

• Nick Pivetta (R) 8-9, 4.51 ERA, 1.326 WHIP

• Michael Wacha (R) 6-1, 2.69 ERA, 1.109 WHIP

• Rich Hill (L) 4-5, 4.75 ERA, 1.352 WHIP

• Kutter Crawford (R) 3-4, 4.18 ERA, 1.222 WHIP

• Josh Winckowski (R) 5-5, 4.69 ERA, 1.491 WHIP

Michael Wacha just returned from the IL, but that is the only good news really. Chris Sale is not coming to the rescue here, and I don't think we have a return date yet for James Paxton either. Brayan Bello is now injured, after not really impressing in three starts and an 8.47 ERA.

Orioles

• Tyler Wells (R) 7-6, 3.90 ERA, 1.109 WHIP (IL until mid-September?)

• Jordan Lyles (R) 9-8, 4.35 ERA, 1.442 WHIP

• Dean Kremer (R) 4-4, 3.69 ERA, 1.311 WHIP

• Spenser Watkins (R) 4-2, 4.23 ERA, 1.369 WHIP

• Kyle Bradish (R) 1-4, 6.42 ERA, 1.622 WHIP

• Austin Voth (R) 3-1, 3.21 ERA, 1.214 WHIP

When Wells comes back, it would seem that Bradish could lose his rotation spot given his performance versus Voth's. Regardless, this is obviously not a post-season worthy rotation at all, so just getting into the playoffs will be the big success story for the Orioles, if it happens.

Later this week I'll do a similar article for the starting pitchers on National League contenders.

All data is from Baseball-Reference.com, and also their subscription service Stathead.com. If you are a big sports fan, be sure to check out the latest features at Stathead and the Sports Reference family of sites.