Best Hitters against Power, Finesse, Flyball, and Groundball Pitchers

Issue #65

Here I’ll continue my series of articles in preparation for the 2023 season and the betting I might want to do. My first two articles along these lines focused on Who gets the most HRs, Hits, and Strikeouts in Bunches? and then one that looked at various splits, including those who hit well at home, against LHP, during day games, when facing a pitcher for the third time in a game, and so on.

For this analysis I’ll surface the hitters over the past two years who have hit the best against power pitchers and finesse pitchers, and then against flyball and groundball pitchers. Given enough plate appearances, I think it is more valuable to know if a particular hitter has done well against the specific pitcher he is facing (and I’ll look at some extreme cases of this in subsequent articles). But when there isn’t much history for a particular hitter/pitcher match-up (and that is the case more often than not), then looking at the broader type of pitcher could also be interesting to consider.

Who hits best against power pitchers?

First off, what is the definition of a “power pitcher”? I’m using stats from baseball-reference.com, so I’m therefore using their definition: “Power pitchers are in the top third of the league in strikeouts plus walks. Finesse are in the bottom third of the league in strikeouts plus walks. Stats are based on the three years before and after (when available), and the season for when the split is computed. A split in 1994 would consider years 1991-1997 when classifying a pitcher.”

Only four hitters with over 100 plate appearances in 2021-22 against power pitchers have an OPS over .900 against them:

• Bryce Harper: .977 OPS, 19 HR in 295 PA

• Rafael Devers: .921 OPS, 18 HR in 317 PA

• Fernando Tatis Jr.: .916 OPS, 11 HR in 148 PA

• Jose Altuve: .906 OPS, 14 HR in 246 PA

In general, fewer hitters excel against power pitchers than do against finesse pitchers, or against those that are average power/finesse (meaning the middle third in the league in strikeouts and walks). Rounding out the OPS top-10 are some more great hitters: Brandon Nimmo, Yordan Alvarez, Mike Trout, Austin Riley, Aaron Judge, and Mookie Betts.

What about guys that at least get a fair number of hits against power pitchers? Here are those with a .290+ batting average in 2021-22:

• Steven Kwan: .329 in 169 PA

• Jose Altuve: .303 in 246 PA

• Thairo Estrada: .302 in 191 PA

• Isiah Kiner-Falefa: .300 in 254 PA

• Aledmys Diaz: .298 in 130 PA

• Yordan Alvarez: .297 in 217 PA

• Nick Castellanos: .295 in 295 PA

• Brandon Nimmo: .292 in 278 PA

Rookie Steven Kwan clearly wasn't intimidated by power pitching. And it was interesting to see Kiner-Falefa so high on this list, since his overall average during 2021-22 was only .267.

Who hits best against finesse pitchers?

A very different story here, with much higher numbers against finesse pitchers than power pitchers. Here are the top-10 in OPS against finesse pitchers from 2021-22:

• Aaron Judge: 1.125 OPS in 489 PA

• Mike Trout: 1.123 OPS in 278 PA

• Joey Meneses: 1.038 OPS in 110 PA

• Joey Votto: 1.030 OPS in 346 PA

• J.D. Martinez: 1.027 OPS in 470 PA

• Trayce Thompson: 1.022 OPS in 143 PA

• Willson Contreras: 1.016 OPS in 359 PA

• Freddie Freeman: 1.009 OPS in 579 PA

• Danny Jansen: 1.006 OPS in 193 PA

• Bryce Harper: 1.005 OPS in 311 PA

Some superstar hitters here like Judge and Trout at the top, but then some that you generally would expect to see this high on an OPS list, like Thompson and Jansen.

Next up with OPS between .950 and .999 are other big sluggers like Byron Buxton, Paul Goldschmidt, Teoscar Hernandez, Kyle Schwarber, Shohei Ohtani, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joc Pederson, and Salvador Perez. As for making good contact, here are the leaders in batting average against finesse pitchers from 2021-22:

• Vinnie Pasquatino: .357 in 112 PA

• Joey Meneses: .353 in 110 PA

• Freddie Freeman: .349 in 579 PA

• Xander Bogaerts: .344 in 486 PA

• Paul Goldschmidt: .341 in 463 PA

• Yadiel Hernandez: .339 in 197 PA

• J.D. Martinez: .337 in 470 PA

• Aaron Judge: .334 in 489 PA

• Bryce Harper: .331 in 311 PA

• Lourdes Gurriel: .328 in 395 PA

• Trea Turner: .327 in 567 PA

• Manuel Margot: .326 in 284 PA

• Mike Trout: .325 in 278 PA

Who hits best against flyball and groundball pitchers?

Here too, definitions are in order. From baseball-reference.com: “Fly Ball pitchers are in the top third of the league in ratio of fly ball outs to ground ball outs. Ground Ball pitchers are in the bottom third of the league in the ratio of fly ball outs to ground ball outs. Stats are based on the three years before and after (when available), and the season for when the split is computed. A split in 1994 would consider years 1991-1997 when classifying a pitcher.”

In looking over the OPS leaders against flyball pitchers, the leaders list includes most of the usual suspects like Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, etc. For batting average, two notable standouts for 2021-22 that I saw were:

• Trea Turner: .368 in 414 PA

• Bryce Harper: .341 in 348 PA

The best hitters against groundball pitchers is a more interesting list. Here are the OPS leaders from 2021-22:

• Taylor Ward: 1.128 OPS in 156 PA

• Ronald Acuna Jr.:1.071 OPS in 205 PA

• Brandon Belt: 1.016 OPS in 167 PA

• Carlos Correa: 1.008 OPS in 240 PA

• Pete Alonso: .991 OPS in 373 PA

• Mike Trout: .986 OPS in 148 PA

• Mookie Betts: .982 OPS in 288 PA

• Mitch Garver: .972 OPS in 109 PA

• Yordan Alvarez: .959 OPS 229 PA

• Shohei Ohtani: .958 OPS in 290 PA

• Sean Murphy: .950 OPS in 236 PA

• Keibert Ruiz: .948 OPS in 147 PA

• Jesse Winker: .932 OPS in 242 PA

• Trevor Story: .931 OPS in 234 PA

• Hunter Renfroe: .928 in 220 PA

• Xander Bogaerts: .923 in 245 PA

Some superstars here to be sure, but also some players that typically aren't at the very top of OPS lists, like Taylor Ward at the very top, and Brandon Belt coming in third. Ward leads the way in batting average against groundball pitchers during 2021-22 as well:

• Taylor Ward: .353 in 156 PA

• Xander Bogaerts: .349 in 245 PA

• Carlos Correa: .348 in 240 PA

• Luis Robert: .345 in 127 PA

• Nick Castellanos: .342 in 277 PA

• Manuel Margot: .340 in 168 PA

• Keibert Ruiz: .339 in 147 PA

• Victor Reyes: .333 in 119 PA

• Ronald Acuna Jr.: .331 in 205 PA

• Brandon Marsh: .331 in 177 PA

• Jesus Aguilar: .324 in 253 PA

• Mookie Betts: .323 in 288 PA

• Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: .322 in 193 PA

• Austin Riley: .322 in 356 PA

• J.T. Realmuto: .321 in 301 PA

• Mike Trout: .321 in 148 PA

Again, some superstars here to be sure, but also some that are more surprising like Manuel Margot, Keibert Ruiz, Victor Reyes, Brandon Marsh, and Jesus Aguilar.

All data is from Baseball-Reference.com, and also their subscription service Stathead.com. If you are a big sports fan, be sure to check out the latest features at Stathead and the Sports Reference family of sites.

Did you know? I wrote a book with the same title as this Substack newsletter / blog: Now Taking the Field: Baseball’s All-Time Dream Teams for All 30 Franchises. It was published in early 2019, by ACTA Sports, the publisher of the annual Bill James Handbook and other popular titles. You can learn more about it at www.NowTakingTheField.com, or buy directly at Amazon and other booksellers.