Just How Bad are the White Sox Through Their First 25 Games?

Issue #177

Going into this season I assumed that the Athletics would be MLB's worst team. And they might still end up that way, as it is still early days in a long season. But they are 9-16, and aren't even last in their division thanks to the surprisingly bad start by the Houston Astros.

Those two teams, along with the Marlins and Rockies, are clearly not doing well so far in 2024. But worse than all of them are the Chicago White Sox, who after losing 6-3 to the Twins on Thursday fell to 3-22 on the season.

That is a .080 winning percentage through their first 25 games. Have any other teams ever started out so badly? It turns out yes, but only three since 1901:

• 1988 Orioles 2-23 (finished 54-107)

• 2022 Reds 3-22 (62-100)

• 2003 Tigers 3-22 (43-119)

What about the expansion 1962 Mets, who finished the season with a 40-120 record? They actually started much better (ahem) than the above teams, with a 7-18 record through their first 25 games.

I've been following this sad state of affairs, so thought I'd do a quick review of the White Sox' team and individual stats so far. First, which three teams have they actually beaten? That is an interesting short list:

• Braves, 3-2 on Apr 2

• Guardians, 7-5 on Apr 9

• Royals, 2-1, game two of a double-header on April 17

Those three teams all have winning records this year, at 17-6, 18-7, and 16-10, respectively. So that shows that anything can happen in baseball on any given day. Or as Chris Berman at ESPN used to stress “That is why they play the game.”

I’ll also note that those victories were each close games, with only a combined four run differential. Overall, the White Sox have a massive negative run differential of 56-141. Ouch.

Looking at their pitching, things are mostly not going well. Their team ERA is 5.26, ranking 29th ahead of only the Colorado's 5.74 mark. The Rockies of course play half their games at Coors, so whenever they are a bad team—and they certainly are again in 2024—they are likely to lead the majors in highest ERA. For instance, in 2023, for the entire season, their team ERA was 5.67 (the White Sox came in fifth worst last year at 4.87.)

In addition to having the second highest ERA so far this year, the White Sox have the fourth highest WHIP at 1.472 (Rockies are worst at 1.640). Breaking that down, the White Sox are fifth worst in hits allowed per nine innings, and tied for fourth worst in walks per nine innings. On the plus side, they are getting some whiffs, as their pitchers are just below league average with 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Not great, but not their biggest issue either.

Their opening day starter Garrett Crochet, a 24-year old converted reliever, had a good spring and then three good regular season starts before slumping in his last three games. He now carries an unattractive 6.37 ERA, though he has 40 K in 29.2 IP and still has a tidy 1.180 WHIP.

Their best starter has been 31-year old Erick Fedde, who after six years with a 77 ERA+ for the Nationals, had a strong performance in Korea in 2023. In five starts and 26.1 IP this year he has 30 K, a 2.73 ERA and 1.139 WHIP.

The other starters have not been pretty, including veterans Michael Soroka (6.83 ERA) and Chris Flexen (6.41), and rookies Jonathan Cannon (7.27) and Nick Nastrini (7.88).

The relievers haven't been as bad, with a 4.28 ERA ranking 22nd out of 30 MLB bullpens (Tigers are the best at 2.06, with the Giants worst at 5.92). Converted closer Michael Kopech in particular was a bright spot until having two rough outings lately, leaving him with a 4.38 ERA on the season so far, but also 19 K in only 12.1 IP.

The White Sox defense is also not very good. They have sixth lowest team fielding percentage at .981 (lowest is the Red Sox at .976, the highest are the Nationals and Braves at .992).

But it is their hitting that seems to be the biggest problem so far. As a team they are slashing .192/.266/.292—that is downright ugly. The Athletics are not hitting much either at .201/.273/.344, but at least their team average is above the Mendoza line and their slugging percentage (!) is well above .300.

Those poor percentages have led the White Sox to averaging only 2.24 runs per game—significantly lower than the Athletics 2.85 runs per game, or the Marlins 3.38. By contrast the Braves are scoring 5.96 runs per game, the Diamondbacks 5.73, and the Orioles 5.67.

No doubt the White Sox' poor offensive numbers will improve a bit as the season progresses. Early extremes usually regress to the mean—or would that be "progress" to the mean in this case?

For instance, the lowest R/G in 2023 was the Athletics at 3.61, with the White Sox second worst at 3.96—both numbers being far higher than the 2.24 Chicago is averaging so far in 2024. Similarly, the White Sox slash percentages last year were all near the bottom, but were .238/.291/.384, so significantly higher than in their first 25 games this year.

Which hitters could possibly start to hit a bit better after April? Just about everyone, really. DH/RF/1B Gavin Sheets has actually been OK so far, slashing .246/.359/.477 with 3 HR and 6 doubles in 78 plate appearances. Injured star CF Luis Robert will be very much welcomed back in May or whenever he can return, and the same for 3B Yoan Moncada in July or beyond.

But until then, here are the slash lines for the other regulars:

• C Martin Maldonado .048/.091/..071 (that batting average comes from going 2-42)

• C Korey Lee .279/.326/.465

• 1B Andrew Vaughn .170/.255/.216

• 2B Nicky Lopez .203/.301/.203 (he walks some, but all 13 of his hits have been singles)

• 3B Yoan Moncada .282/.364/.410

• SS Paul DeJong .211/.274/.439

• LF Andrew Benintendi .165/.202/.188

• CF Dominic Fletcher .203/.277/.271

• RF Robbie Grossman .184/.322/.204 (like Lopez, he walks some, but all hits have been singles except for one double)

• DH Eloy Jiménez .200/.280/.333

• IF Lenyn Sosa .132/.154/.184 (he hit .385 with 4 HR in 9 games at AAA Charlotte)

• IF Braden Shewmake .158/.175/.263

Nobody expects defense-first catcher Maldonado to suddenly become an elite hitter at age 37. But hoping for more from guys like Vaughn, Benintendi, and Jiménez—is that too much to ask? We'll see.

What about players at AAA Charlotte who could be called up to help? One such player has already been called up, 3B Danny Mendick. He was crushing it at Charlotte, slashing .317/.388/.817 with 8 HR and 6 doubles in 19 games. But since joining the Sox he has gone 4-17 with one double in four games.

Three outfielders could be useful call-ups, starting with the talent Oscar Colás, who has 3 HR and 3 SB in 18 games for Charlotte, but is also only hitting a mediocre .246. Rafael Ortega has 3 HR and 6 SB, but is also only .241 (though has a .378 OBP). And recently signed veteran Tommy Pham is another possibility, as he has gone 5-17 with one HR in his first four AAA games.

On the pitching side, as noted the Sox have already brought up two rookies in Cannon and Nastrini. They have three veterans at Charlotte in Chad Kuhl, Brad Keller, and Mike Clevinger—but it seems unlikely any of them would materially change the fortunes of the parent White Sox club if called upon.

All data is from Baseball-Reference.com, and also their subscription service Stathead.com. If you are a big sports fan, be sure to check out the latest features at Stathead and the Sports Reference family of sites.

Did you know? I wrote a book with the same title as this Substack newsletter / blog: Now Taking the Field: Baseball’s All-Time Dream Teams for All 30 Franchises. It was published in early 2019, by ACTA Sports, the publisher of the annual Bill James Handbook and other popular titles. You can learn more about it at www.NowTakingTheField.com, or buy directly at Amazon and other booksellers.