Top 2022 Baseball Trade Deadline Candidates

Issue #8

TWO UPDATES: The same day I published this article, we all saw the news about OF Juan Soto of the Nationals turning down a mega-deal. No doubt the Nationals are now entertaining offers for him. He is a great talent, but his performance this year hasn’t been as strong—he is still leading the league in walks and has hit 20 HR, but a .250 batting average is far from his .313 last year or his league-leading .351 in shortened 2020. Still, and OPS+ of 162 in his age-23 season is outstanding. He might not get traded right now though, as he still has two years of arbitration eligibility with the Nationals, and isn’t a free agent until 2025. Also, the Mariners continued win-streak has led some commentators to argue—even more strongly than I suggested below—that they will not be in sell mode. I had included OF Haniger and 1B/DH Santana in my depth chart below as potential trade pieces, but that now appears pretty unlikely.

Will this year be like last year? Will there be any huge stars moved before the trade deadline, like Max Scherzer and Trey Turner going to the Dodgers? Or will see some really impactful deals, like the Braves, with Ronald Acuna Jr. injured, bringing in four outfielders, all of whom played an important role in finishing their regular season strong and ultimately winning the 2021 World Series?

Based on what I'm hearing, and looking at the most likely candidates to be traded, I am skeptical.

The MLB trade deadline used to almost always be July 31, but per the new 2022-2026 collective bargaining agreement, the Commissioner's Office has the flexibility to set a date between July 28 and Aug. 3. This year, it has been set as Tuesday, August 2.

Here is a depth chart of the players that I'm hearing the most talk about and/or that I think could be traded because they are looming free agents after this year and play for teams that are not contenders. Such players are often referred to as 2-3 month "rentals"—worth a chance if they can help your club the rest of the way or in the postseason, knowing that you aren't committed to them beyond this season. Note that players with an * are not free agents after this season, which adds a wrinkle to their trade possibilities. The others either will be free agents, or I think very likely will be based on option scenarios.

Hopefully I've not missed anyone too obvious. This assortment seems particularly light up the middle, except for Contreras as a catcher of course. And given how many relief pitchers are on major league rosters these days, no doubt there are many more that might be available in trades that I didn't include here.

Beyond the names shown above, there is also the issue of what happens in the next couple of weeks. For instance, the Orioles and Mariners have been surging—are they now buyers instead of sellers, in order to make a playoff run? Or how about the Phillies and Giants—they are wildcard contenders as of now, but if they hit a slump, perhaps they would become sellers? The White Sox have seriously underperformed expectations, but I'm assuming they won't be sellers at the trade deadline—or will they?

I've heard talk of various players (not on the above chart) from some of these teams as possible trade options, depending on how things go in the next two weeks. For the Orioles, there is 1B Trey Mancini and OF Anthony Santander. For the Giants there are guys like looming free agents 1B Brandon Belt, OF Joc Pederson, and infielder Wilmer Flores. And the Phillies have even more looming free agents: SS Didi Gregorius, OF Odubel Herrera, starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Zach Eflin, and relief pitchers Corey Knebel, Brad Hand, and Jeurys Familia.

Then there are non-contending teams with some players being talked about as trade possibilities, even though the team has one or more years of player control over a still rising talent. The Pirates are a good example of this, with OF Brian Reynolds and RP David Bednar. Or the A's with C Sean Murphy, OF Ramon Laureano, 2B Tony Kemp, and starting pitchers Paul Blackburn and Cole Irvin. And some Marlins players have been mentioned as well, such as infielder Joey Wendle, 1B Jesus Aguilar, or even 1B/DH Garrett Cooper who was just named an All-Star replacement player.

Non-contending teams also often have veterans under contract that might be attractive pieces somewhere else. Examples this year could be the Reds with OF Tommy Pham, the Diamondbacks with SP Madison Bumgarner, or the the Cubs with SP Kyle Hendricks. The biggest example of this kind of possibility might be the Royals with 2B/OF Whit Merrifield, a great player who is having a down year but might spring to life in a different setting.

If the names discussed here are the only ones ultimately dealt, then it appears we won't see anything epic like the Scherzer/Turner trade last year, or some of the trade deadline deals of years past that involved both stars and impact results, such as Mark Teixeira (Angels), CC Sabathia (Brewers), Randy Johnson (Astros), Rickey Henderson (A's), Manny Ramirez (Dodgers), Aroldis Chapman (Cubs), Carlos Beltran (Astros), Fred McGriff (Braves), and David Justice (Yankees), just to name a few. But we'll see... baseball GMs often surprise us this time of year!