Could Shohei Ohtani Someday Win the Batting Triple Crown... and the Pitching Triple Crown?

Issue #108

Five years ago the very idea of someone winning both the batting and pitching triple crowns—in their careers, let alone in one season—would have seemed preposterous. But Shohei Ohtani's continued performance in recent years is making many ridiculous questions now at least worth considering.

I'll admit the traditional "Triple Crowns" aren't seen as they once were, because a few of the component statistics in each are no longer held with such high reverence. On the hitting side, HR are still seen as a key counting stat, but batting average is more often presented alongside OBP and SLG as part of a players overall “slash line.” And RBI as a counting stat has also been downgraded in importance because we all recognize that it depends so much on the players in front of you and their ability to get on base. It used to be a key metric for annual MVP voting, but now not so much.

Similarly on the pitching side, strikeouts are like HR for hitters—a key counting stat that we all still track. ERA remains a pretty standard metric, though we also use FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and WHIP (walks + hits per IP) often too, as well as ERA+ to adjust for ballpark effects and seasonal/era tendencies. But it is the statistic of "wins" that has declined in importance the most out of all six triple crown categories, as we've collectively come to realize the somewhat arbitrary nature of the stat, and therefore its degree of irrelevance to evaluating pitching performance.

That all said, winning either a hitting or a pitching "triple crown" hasn't lost all of its luster. For one, they are relatively rare accomplishments throughout the history of the game. And perhaps more importantly, discussing triple crowns opens the door to discussion of updated "crowns" that might involve other statistics deemed stronger, such as "slash line crowns" for hitters or say a combination of ERA+, WHIP, and strikeouts for pitchers.

A review of the history of triple crowns

Before I get to Shohei Ohtani, here is a brief history of baseball triple crowns at the major league level. The last batting triple crown was won by Miguel Cabrera in 2012, who had 44 HR, 139 RBI, and a .330 BA for the Tigers. Prior to that, Carl Yastrzemski was the most recent, in 1967, when he had 44 HR, 121 RBI, and a .326 BA.

Overall, the batting triple crown has been achieved 28 times, with the following breakdown for each major league:

• 10 - AL

• 6 - NL

• 1- AA (1887)

• 11 - Negro Leagues

Players who have won multiple batting triple crowns include Oscar Charleston (3), Ted Williams (2), Josh Gibson (2), and Rogers Hornsby (2).

Pitching triple crowns are also rare, though a bit more common than batting triple crowns, especially in recent decades with nine pitching triple crowns since 1997. The most recent came in the short 2020 season when Shane Bieber of the Indians led the AL with a 1.63 ERA, 8 wins, and 122 strikeouts. The last full-season pitching triple crowns came in 2011, when both leagues had one: Justin Verlander of the Tigers led the AL with a 2.40 ERA, 24 wins, and 250 strikeouts, and Clayton Kershaw led the NL with a 2.28 ERA, 21 wins, and 248 strikeouts.

Overall, the pitching triple crown has been achieved 43 times, with the following breakdown for each major league:

• 17 - AL

• 21 - NL

• 1 - AA (1884)

• 4 - Negro Leagues

Players who have won multiple pitching triple crows include Sandy Koufax (3), Walter Johnson (3), Grover Alexander (3), Roger Clemens (2), Lefty Gomez (2), Lefty Grove (2), and Christy Mathewson (2).

What about past two-way stars?

This article teases up the idea that Shohei Ohtani could win one or both of the triple crowns at some point. What about past two-way, hitter/pitcher stars at the major league level? Here is how three such players did in the six triple crown categories during their careers:

• Babe Ruth never won a batting triple crown. He came closest in 1924 when he led the AL in HR (46) and batting average (.378), but came in second in RBI (124). That was his only batting title, compared with leading the AL in HR 12 times and RBI 5 times. On the pitching side he paced the AL in ERA with a 1.75 mark in 1916, but never ranked higher than 3rd in wins or strikeouts.

• Bullet Rogan led his league in all three pitching categories over the course of his career, but never in the same season. He was also played a lot of games in the OF and some across the infield and was an outstanding hitter with a career slash line of .338/.413/.521 and 152 OPS+ (according to the data available currently at baseball-reference.com). But he never led his league in HR, RBI, or batting average.

• Martin Dihigo led his league in HR twice and batting average once, but never led in RBI. He was also a good pitcher with a 3.34 ERA and 141 ERA+ (according to baseball-reference.com) but never lead his league in any of the pitching triple crown categories.

Shohei Ohtani could win either triple crown

Of course that statement is true in that he could do so, and even saying that is something we wouldn’t have realistically even imagined five or more years ago. But that said, it is highly unlikely—in fact I’d say it is unlikely he’ll win either the batting or pitching triple crown, simply because it is hard to do. But it is fun to contemplate… here are his triple crown batting numbers for 2022 and at the All-Star break in 2023, and where they rank in the AL:

HR

• 2022: 34 - 4th

• 2023 so far: 32 - 1st

RBI

• 2022: 95 - 7th

• 2023: 71 - 2nd

BA

• 2022: .273

• 2023: .302 - 6th

So far in 2023, Ohtani has a healthy lead in HR, with Luis Robert Jr. in second place with 26 and then Adolis Garcia at 23 and Rafael Devers with 20. If Judge were healthy, this would likely be a different story, but with him injured and sitting at 19 HR for the season, it would seem Ohtani has a good shot to end up as the 2023 AL HR champ.

For RBI, he is only four off the leader, which is Adolis Garcia with 75. The Angels can score runs, but the Rangers are the top scoring team in MLB, and Garcia typically has Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Nathaniel Lowe ahead of him to drive in frequently. So it could be a tight race here, with Rafael Devers with 70 also in the mix.

Batting average is no doubt the least likely of these three for Ohtani in 2023, or in any season. The current leader is Yandy Diaz at .323, which is only 21 points ahead of Shohei, but there are also guys like Bo Bichette (.317) and Masataka Yoshida (.316) near the top as well. But the biggest issue here in 2023 will likely be Corey Seager who will soon qualify for the BA leaderboard and is hitting .353.

Here are Ohtani’s triple crown pitching numbers for 2022 and at the All-Star break in 2023, and where they rank in the AL:

Wins

• 2022: 15 - 4th

• 2023: 7 - tied for 13th

ERA

• 2022: 2.33 - 4th

• 2023: 3.32 - tied for 13th

SO

• 2022: 219 - 3rd

• 2023: 132 - 3rd

For ERA so far in the AL in 2023, Framber Valdez at 2.51 and Shane McClanahan at 2.53 are significantly ahead of the field. For wins, McClanahan is in the lead with 11, and then Nathan Eovaldi and Zach Eflin are tied with 10. Strikeouts is the category where Ohtani is closest to the top, though Kevin Gausman with 153 has a healthy lead, followed by Pablo López at 138.

Although not part of triple crowns, I’ll note that at the all-star break, Ohtani is leading the AL in several categories:

• 6 triples

• 226 total bases

• .663 SLG

• 1.050 OPS

• 182 OPS+

• 6.0 lowest hits per nine IP

• 6.5 WAR (from Baseball-Reference.com)

So it seems safe to predict that Ohtani, during his career, will lead his league in one or more of the six traditional triple crown categories. Winning either triple crown is a rare feat, and winning both during a career would be unprecedented—and winning both in the same season would be completely amazing.

Anyone have odds in Vegas on these things?

All data is from Baseball-Reference.com, and also their subscription service Stathead.com. If you are a big sports fan, be sure to check out the latest features at Stathead and the Sports Reference family of sites.

Did you know? I wrote a book with the same title as this Substack newsletter / blog: Now Taking the Field: Baseball’s All-Time Dream Teams for All 30 Franchises. It was published in early 2019, by ACTA Sports, the publisher of the annual Bill James Handbook and other popular titles. You can learn more about it at www.NowTakingTheField.com, or buy directly at Amazon and other booksellers.